Flawed PHEV report has legs

There has never been a shortage of stories in the press denigrating plug-in electric cars. Why? Because people naturally, logically believe electric cars are a good idea. Special interests who preferred to maintain the internal combustion status quo (read oil and auto companies) have long needed to plant seeds of doubt. Via paid consultants, close relationships with universities, a pliant press more apt to reprint a press release than analyze it, and print and television advertising, their negative message has been successfully imparted.

We've seen it all in the press: electric cars are more polluting, less safe, require too much water, will electrocute rescuers after a crash, will spontaneously explode, and will kill the blind. It takes a sustained effort to sow confusion about the obvious benefits of electric cars. Little would have been gained by attempting to expand the reach of gasoline to laptops or refrigerators, so we've long been subjected to a decades-long preemptive assault on electric cars. As electric cars seek a place in the market, expect more such stories.

This week saw the sophisticated version with the release of a National Academies of Sciences study, sponsored by the U.S. Department of Energy. The press release headline blares: "PLUG-IN HYBRID VEHICLE COSTS LIKELY TO REMAIN HIGH, BENEFITS MODEST FOR DECADES." The report highlights battery cost in 2010 leading to a $18,000 premium for some initial PHEVs, and suggests no lower cost is unlikely to be achieved with economies of scale. Dubious presumptions about PHEV usage lead the authors to minimize any potential petroleum and emissions reductions. Many reports, including presentations at CARB in September 2009, see much more positive indicators on the battery front, and the NRDC/EPRI study that led to the "more polluting" story cited above, actually points to significant emissions reductions with PHEVs.

If you read to the end of the press release, you find out more about who actually issued the report. It was something called the "Committee on Assessment of Resource Needs for Development of Fuel Cell and Hydrogen Technology & Potential Impacts of Plug-In Hybrid Electric Vehicles" within the "Board on Energy & Environmental Systems" of the "Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences" of the National Academies of Science. An odd-sounding committee, really, albeit imbued with gravitas. According to the Committee Membership Information, the group contains at least three retired oil and auto company people, academics who do hydrogen research, consultants with oil company ties and one who has served on the National Hydrogen Foundation board and another the retired Vice President Hydrogen Systems for Chevron Technology Ventures, and a venture capitalist immersed in hydrogen. And, of course, a professional environmentalist, a Union of Concerned Scientist scientist, whose work has focused on fuel cells. Stacked deck?

The message from those attempting to derail the inevitable plug on vehicles is always the same - we've got to keep trying everything. Nothing's ready yet. We can't choose winners.

According to the report, a portfolio approach toward reducing U.S. dependence on oil is necessary for long-term success. This should include increasing the fuel efficiency of conventional vehicles and pursuing research, development, and demonstration into alternative strategies, including the use of biofuels, electric vehicles, and hydrogen fuel cell vehicles.

CNN picked up the story questioning whether plug-ins pencil out for consumers.

Friday's Washington Post editorializes ignorantly against government support of plug-ins, based it would seem solely upon this report.

One of the many smaller media outlets and blogs to pick up the story got the message. The author of Don’t Believe the Hype About the Plug-In Car, opined:

There’s always the hope that a genius at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology or another top school will invent the gizmo that changes everything. But this isn’t Hollywood and technological advances are likely to be incremental. That means no immediate miracles and oil will continue to be a vital part of the economy for the foreseeable future.

In fact it doesn't take a miracle. It takes a clarity of purpose, a willingness to pay attention to the science, and the guts to aim high. We need a focused effort at transportation electrification to work in parallel with the move toward renewable energy.

Yet another CARB ZEV meeting

The California Air Resources Board (CARB) met on Thursday to discuss the Zero Emission Vehicle regulation and the revisions staff was tasked with exploring for 2015 and beyond. Plug In America President Dan Davids offered testimony applauding CARB's achievements, but faulted the agency for skewed priorities and reliance on unreliable information and projections. Mr. Davids said CARB's resource allocation has favored fuel cells and hydrogen over plug-in electric by 75% to 25%, based on conversations with Legislative Director Jay Friedland. Chair Mary Nichols said that isn't true. CARB staffer Elise Keddie said Friedland had taken back his assertion regarding a 75/25 split. Friedland sent an email immediately for the record clarifying the conversation with Ms. Keddie and indicating he stood by Plug In America's analysis. He is awaiting a response.

The representative from Honda, the most consistently pro-fuel cell automaker, said FCVs are "not yet ready for mass production" and that much work needs to be done "before even slight volume increases." The Nissan rep touted the imminent LEAF, although without the enthusiasm of the Nissan employees I've met over the recent months. Sierra Club, NRDC, UCS and Friends of the Earth each raised serious questions about the direction of the ZEV regulation, signaling a renewed interest in plug-in electric vehicles for the near-term GHG reduction benefit that could be achieved.

CARB's policies do not appear poised to utilize the historic opportunity offered as plug-in electric vehicles are achieving commercialization. Given their professed "technology neutrality," one might expect to see the state agency newly responsible for greenhouse gas reduction policy to aggressively support the zero emission vehicle technology arriving in the market soonest. Yet much of the white paper simply reaffirms CARB's intention to focus on hydrogen and fuel cell vehicles, despite their own belief that even pre-commercialization of fuel cell vehicles remains over five years away. CARB's continued unbalanced allocation of resources is reflected on its website homepage and in the white paper itself (for example, 658 words are devoted to hydrogen infrastructure; 109 to BEV infrastructure.)

Despite CARB's preference for H2/FCVs, its policies have helped bring major manufacturers back to California with plug-in electric cars. CARB ought to recognize that near-term commercialization of plug-in electric cars is happening. The greater near term carbon reduction benefit of plug-in electrics should not be sacrificed to projections of cost and consumer preferences decades hence.

Two new EV initiatives

Two items caught my attention this week.

Plug In America has a new ally with the announcement of the creation of the Electrification Coalition. The goal of this high-powered group of corporate executives is nothing less than the complete transformation of our transportation sector, one in which electricity plays the dominant role where possible. Quoting from their website: "electrification is the best path to the fuel diversity that is indispensable to improving the nation’s economic strength, environmental health, and national security." Along with one large automaker (Nissan), infrastructure providers and utilities, FedEx is among the founding members.

Comprehensive does not begin to describe Electrification Roadmap, the report they have issued. Download it.

Bowing to the burgeoning electric vehicle industry in both countries, President Obama and President Hu Jin Tao announced the formation of the U.S.-China Electric Vehicles Initiative. The Initiative is meant to work on joint standards and provide for data sharing as cars roll out in both countries. Public awareness and engagement is one area of specific attention.

With corporate execs and world leaders coming on board, can the cars be far behind?

Reva to bring new electric car to Iceland

Reva, the Indian electric car company best known for the G-Whiz in England, has signed a deal to bring their new product to Iceland with sales beginning within a year. The NXG and NXR, revealed at the Frankfurt Motor Show recently, have a Th!nk City-like footprint, 100 mile range and 65 mph top speed.

Electricity is a more renewable resource than ice in Iceland. This provided hydrogen utopians with the world's best-case scenario for transitioning to a hydrogen economy. Yet after a decade of hydrogen hype and fuel cell fever stoked by car and oil companies, few cars have arrived. None for sale. At one time there were 16 hydrogen cars in Reykjavik. As of July, that was down to 12.

"In the past years, teams from all the big car manufacturing companies visited us and said they intended to market fuel cell-powered hydrogen cars shortly after 2010," said Bragi Arnason, a professor of chemistry at the University of Iceland in Reykjavik.

Three hydrogen busses once served regular Reykjavik routes. "The bus project has now been terminated; we are waiting for the next generation to be built," Arnason said.

Now Mitsubishi's iMiev and Reva are poised to begin the viable zero-emission transition in Iceland.

[Sources: autobloggreen.com and eenews.net]

Nissan sketches electric commercial vehicle; envisions electric ambulance

Nissan has released an official sketch of an electric urban delivery vehicle that looks closer to viable than many EV concepts that have appeared at auto shows over the last few months. It is a somewhat stylized take on the NV200 light commercial gasoline van Nissan sells in Japan and Europe.

The press release from Nissan highlights the potential use as an ambulance which could drive directly into a hospital. One time when I took a friend to an emergency room in my Th!nk City I realized hospital emergency areas would be designed differently if EV ambulances existed. How absurd that critical care cases are transported through a plume of toxins between the ambulance and medical attention. Significant moments wasted because the internal combustion vehicle can't drive directly into the hospital.

Yet another benefit of EVs. Yet another market.

[Source: AutoBlogGreen.com]

Al Gore plugs electric cars on Daily Show

Al Gore has probably been presumed to be a long-time booster of electric cars, but it hasn't always been so. Like many, he couldn't see past the dirty, coal-produced power many plug-ins would utilize, despite the environmental benefits. Now he's sees a EVs a'comin'.

The Daily Show With Jon Stewart	Mon - Thurs 11p / 10c
Exclusive - Al Gore Extended Interview Pt. 2
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GM CEO: FCVs 10X more expensive than electric

GM CEO Fritz Henderson sat down with reporters and editors from the Washington Post yesterday. No real news on the Volt, but his comments on Fuel Cell Vehicles should cause a stir. Anyone at CARB in Sacramento paying attention?

Post: Is GM pulling back on its hydrogen car?

Henderson: "Are we putting resources into it? Not as much. . . . We spent through the mid part of this decade a reasonably high portion of our research and our development money on hydrogen fuel cells. We put 100 vehicles into the market. Consumers have tested them . . . We've learned a lot. The vehicles work. The issue is always cost, 100 percent cost. [He put the cost of the vehicles at upwards of $400,000.]

"It's still a ways away from commercialization. No question."

[Source: Washington Post]